Key reversal levels for this week:
| Weekly | Current | Mode | Key (W) | MoM (W) | Weeks | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,197.58 | 3,848.98 | 8.15 | 54 | 35.88 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,838.70 | 1,758.17 | 7.06 | 59 | 29.82 | |
| Nikkei | 15,734.46 | 14,758.35 | 7.28 | 60 | 66.22 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,829.30 | 6,559.21 | 2.01 | 3 | 1.16 | |
| DAX | 9,742.96 | 8,970.45 | 6.89 | 27 | 18.27 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 105.48 | 106.48 | -2.18 | 35 | -8.96 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,253.81 | 1,313.83 | -3.74 | 56 | -24.33 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3534 | 1.3455 | 1.99 | 25 | 1.90 | |
| Oil (CL) | 94.59 | 100.36 | -2.30 | 12 | -3.36 |
(Legend: Mode: green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Weeks: weeks since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the weekly key reversal levels:
* Stock markets did well last week, but weekly momentum (MoM) remains down for US and Japanese indexes. The European markets appear a bit stronger right now.
* Bonds (TLT) are coming very close to their weekly key reversal level. A weekly close above 106.48 would turn bonds bullish for the first time in 35 weeks.
*$EURUSD is holding only barely above its weekly key reversal, so the euro is at risk of turning bearish again.
Daily key reversal levels as of today:
| Daily | Current | Mode | Key (D) | MoM (D) | Days | % Ch. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 4,197.58 | 4,121.02 | 4.93 | 67 | 11.42 | |
| S&P 500 | 1,838.70 | 1,819.93 | 2.72 | 20 | 1.64 | |
| Nikkei | 15,734.46 | 15,580.07 | -2.15 | 2 | -0.70 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6,829.30 | 6,668.92 | 5.75 | 17 | 3.37 | |
| DAX | 9,742.96 | 9,392.02 | 6.44 | 19 | 6.56 | |
| Bonds (TLT) | 105.48 | 103.37 | 7.18 | 6 | 1.65 | |
| Gold (spot) | 1,253.81 | 1,226.99 | 3.76 | 5 | 0.47 | |
| $EURUSD | 1.3534 | 1.3681 | -1.60 | 10 | -0.43 | |
| Oil (CL) | 94.59 | 95.58 | -4.95 | 11 | -0.92 |
(Legend: Mode : green = bullish, pale green = weak bullish – may have peaked, red = bearish, pink = mildly bearish – may have bottomed | Key: key reversal level | MoM indicator: green = rising, red = falling | Days: days since start of current bullish or bearish mode | % Ch: percent change since start of current mode | yellow box: changed direction)
(for more details about these key levels, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/key-reversal-levels/ )
(for information about the MoM indicator, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/09/14/mom-indicator/ )
Important developments in the daily key reversal levels:
* Stock indexes picked up positive momentum (MoM)) again, with the exception of the Nikkei. But all markets are bumping into their Top 1 target levels (see below), so it remains to be seen if they can push higher already.
* Bonds (TLT) have continued their rally and are close to testing their weekly key reversal level.
* Gold is hesitating while we see MoM turn down for $EURUSD. Watch the evolution for the Euro vs US dollar. If he dollar keeps strengthening then it will start weighing on gold prices.
Our current key target zones (we use a +/-1% zone around these targets):
| Key Targets | Top1 | Top2 | Bottom1 | Bottom2 |
| Nasdaq | 4200 | 4390 | 3530 | 3210 |
| S&P 500 | 1870 | 1926 | 1755 | 1576 |
| Nikkei | 17220 | 12710 | 10450 | |
| FTSE 100 | 6800 | 7150 | 6230 | 6110 |
| DAX | 9800 | 10120 * | 8715 | 7870 |
| Bonds (TLT) | 111.80 | 128.50 | 102 | 96.25 |
| Gold (spot) | 1298 * | 1448 | 1153 | 1075 |
| $EURUSD | 1.3950 | 1.42 | 1.3435 * | 1.2870 |
| Crude Oil(CL) | 105 | 113 | 89.50 | 86.00 |
(* = new target )
(for more details about these key targets, see: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/key-target-levels/ )
Important developments last week:
* A new Top1 target for gold at $1298
* A new Bottom1 target for $EURUSD at 1.3435
* A new Top2 target for the DAX at 10120
* Most stock indexes are once again testing their Top1 targets. On the second (or third) attempt at a target level you usually get the breakout, but if it fails again then you have an increased risk of a serious move in the other direction. So watch these levels carefully.
PS: if you are looking for key reversal levels for other world markets or individual stocks, then check out my Twitter account.
Good luck,
Danny
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