The LT wave did not pan out in April. The market rallied strongly in what was supposed to be a weaker first half of May. And then went sideways when strength was expected in the final two weeks. Some people call that a “phase inversion”, I think that’s just a fancy name for “not working”.… Continue reading LT wave for May 2026
Category: Market Commentary
Using Quarterly Charts
Today I want to show a little trick that works with quarterly charts. The shorter the timeframe, the more noisy the data. Daily news items, Fed decisions, earnings reports,… can cause sudden spikes on hourly and daily charts. Such whipsaw moves can throw off indicators. In monthly or quarterly charts those daily variations even out… Continue reading Using Quarterly Charts
LT wave for April 2026
The LT wave had another good month in March. Expected strength in the first days was not spectacular, but the index kept up. That changed in the second week and stocks kept declining throughout the three weeks with negative LT wave readings. The final days did produce a relief rally. So, it was close to… Continue reading LT wave for April 2026
The case for a 2026 peak
In a post last year we mentioned the solar cycle peak and the potential for an early 2026 stock market peak based on the decadal pattern: Solar Cycle Peak 2025 Let’s go a bit deeper into that, starting with the decadal pattern. (The old Scribd PDF is still online, but you can also download it… Continue reading The case for a 2026 peak
LT wave for March 2026
The LT wave had another good month in February. Weakness in the first days and a rebound at the end of the first week came right on the mark. Those gains were given back in the second week, which was projected to be weaker. Stocks traded with a small upward bias in the final two… Continue reading LT wave for March 2026
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