It has been quite a while since I did my last full post on Bitcoin. Of course I kept tweeting about it, like in this warning right after the $69k peak in late 2021: https://x.com/lunatictrader1/status/1470303560000753664
With Bitcoin breaking out to new record highs after a long corrective phase, the big question is now how high this can go. I want to pick up on the long term chart that was seen in the 2018 post linked above:
The pale green channel in my 2018 post is here shown as the blue channel. It remained valid as major support until early 2022, when the market dropped to a lower level of support. The current price action still trades nicely along the lower parallel blue line, as seen in this chart. How long this blue parallel line will hold is impossible to say at this point.
The late 2021 high at $69k allowed us to draw a new parallel channel, red in this chart, and Bitcoin has traded within this channel since 2017. I consider this the main trend channel until it gets abandoned. The ceiling of that channel is currently around $300k and that’s what I would consider the max short term price target if we get a runaway move.
That’s not the base scenario in my opinion. As a new asset class matures the year over year growth rate normally slows down. That’s why I have also penned in an even flatter black channel, which uses the 2019 highs and the 2022 lows as its slope (preliminary). This will need confirmation by at least one more touch to be in play, which could come if bitcoin peaks out in the $100-110k zone in the coming months. You can see that more clearly in this weekly chart:
Several of our lines converge just above $100k and that would be a tough hurdle to overcome imo. If Bitcoin gets there I would expect some sellers to take advantage.
There is a lot of social media talk about Bitcoin 200k, Bitcoin 500k, even 1 million. I think that’s overly optimistic. If the black channel in my monthly chart takes over then Bitcoin $1 million could come around 2034-2036. That’s still a respectable rate of change and also a more sustainable one.
If at some point the 2022 low, which was near $15k, gets broken then it would signal the likely end of bitcoin.
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