Markets continue to act rather weak, despite being in a lunar green period. Especially the Nasdaq, which is now well below its recent peaks already. We have a few more days of lunar green period to go, but later this week we will start an eclipse red period. The red periods preceding a solar eclipse… Continue reading LT wave for April
Tag: lunar cycles
Why you can not afford to be a bull or a bear
There are two types of people. Some people constantly change their theories and beliefs to make them fit reality better, while others try to change reality to make it fit their rather fixed theories and beliefs. In his book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail but Some Don’t, Nate Silver describes… Continue reading Why you can not afford to be a bull or a bear
Adverse move ratio
The US stock market has been climbing steadily without any serious pullback for more than a year. Some analysts consider this a dangerous sign of complacency, others blame the central bank’s QE policies for this “abnormal” market. Almost all seem to agree that this can only end with a crash. But how unusual is this… Continue reading Adverse move ratio
LT wave for March
Markets reached new highs last weeks, and the S&P 500 came within 2 points of the 1870 target we had put out. With a lunar red period set to start this week, we have to watch out on the downside. Here is the current Nasdaq chart (click for larger image): The Nasdaq keeps working its… Continue reading LT wave for March
The intuition trap
A lot of investors rely on intuition to estimate the odds of the market going up or down, and this influences their trading decisions. The Dow Jones Industrials has been going up five years in a row, so now we are overdue for a down year, isn’t it? There hasn’t been a 10% correction for… Continue reading The intuition trap
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