Anticipating future price action

In a recent blog post we explored what typically happens after a huge 4-5% up day in the S&P 500, as was seen on December 26: How to trade after huge up days. As always, bearish commentators were out to declare how unhealthy huge up days are. But history does not confirm that belief, huge… Continue reading Anticipating future price action

Stocks and bitcoin

Stocks have basically gone sideways so far this month. Since the November 9 drop the S&P 500 is trying to climb back, but it looks like a tired effort. Meanwhile bullish participation continues to weaken, as reported in my weekly reversal levels outlook. The lunar green period is about to end, so it will be… Continue reading Stocks and bitcoin

Narrow range

The S&P 500 has climbed just above 2500, technically breaking out above its early August highs. But this doesn’t make the market any easier to read because we remain stuck in a narrowing range. Here is the updated chart: The narrowing range, as shown by the blue lines in this chart, will inevitably be abandoned… Continue reading Narrow range

When will the moon blink?

Stocks rallied strongly last week, and another lunar green period has ended with handsome gains. The lunar cycle keeps up its perfect record for the year. This is a highly unusual winning streak. If we consider the odds of correctly guessing the direction of the market over a given period at 50%, then getting it… Continue reading When will the moon blink?