It’s that time again. Solar cycle 25 is peaking , or has peaked, and that’s being watched by some well known investors. In some previous articles I wrote around the peak of solar cycle 24 I didn’t find much evidence that solar cycle peaks coincide with stock market peaks. Sometimes they do, sometimes they dont. And we only have some 20 observed cycles, so not much statistical confidence can be taken from it.
See:
- https://blog.lunatictrader.com/2013/01/21/new-highs/
- Sunspots high – sell or buy?
- Solar Cycles and the Stock Market.
But with markets still going higher since the Covid lows in 2020 this sunspot cycle could mark a top. As I have become a lazy writer and like to play with the new AI toys recently I asked Grok two questions about it:
1 – “Which famous investors consider the correlation between sunspots cycle highs and US stock market peaks?”
This is the answer: https://x.com/i/grok/share/fnLpNClLHYauBVfkYNr1tFjvo
And 2 – “Given the current solar cycle 25 progression and prognosis, when would the next important stock market peak and bottom be expected if the correlation we saw in recent solar cycles holds up?”
Which got me this: https://x.com/i/grok/share/gOBkvHMiGr4TSQ8prZ100alMH
So, there we have it. The next important stock market peak can be expected in late 2025 to early 2026. And the next important bottom would then follow in 2028-2030. Who would doubt Grok?
Note that an early 2026 peak and a 2028 bottom would follow the decadal pattern very closely, as described in my Scribd article (linked above). So, is it the sunspot cycle or the decadal pattern that “works”? They coincide this time, so we will not get an answer. But we can watch and learn.
LunaticTrader Blog 
Great stuff Dan! Do you follow McWhirter/18.6 year cycle? It has us peaking as well with a decline starting next August.
Yes, I know about McWhirter’s cycle. May do some post on it.
very interesting Dan! Thanks for posting. Your date range for this solar cycle peak is the same date range that Glenn Neely is giving for stocks to peak. If he’s right, he expects a bear lasting 1 1/2 to 3 years, possibly down to 5000 spx but not below 4400.
Thanks. The average drop from a peak in 6 year to a bottom in 7 or 8 year is 10% in the decadal cycle. Of course it varies. So, if the market peaks at 7,000 next year, then even a drop to 6,000 would fit the pattern. There is some tendency in fintwits to predict big declines, that gives more clicks. But such declines are rare. Market doldrums for a year or two, followed by a new rally to 10k would be a more typical outcome.
Thank you. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Neely has an incredible track record for getting the big picture right. Short term timing is always a challenge, but just knowing that a top is likely by end or year or early next year is a huge advantage. Good luck!
Thanks.
Thank you for sharing
Debbie C. in Texas
You are welcome.