The LT wave did not pan out in April.
The market rallied strongly in what was supposed to be a weaker first half of May. And then went sideways when strength was expected in the final two weeks. Some people call that a “phase inversion”, I think that’s just a fancy name for “not working”.
Here is the LT wave for May:
And that seems to continue into May. The wave shows weakness until around the 12th, but the market has broken out to new records in the recent days (writing this on May 6th). A stronger week is expected until around the 20th, followed by weakness towards the end of the month again.
When the cycle goes off the boil I just wait until it gets back on track.
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