The case for a 2026 peak

In a post last year we mentioned the solar cycle peak and the potential for an early 2026 stock market peak based on the decadal pattern: Solar Cycle Peak 2025

Let’s go a bit deeper into that, starting with the decadal pattern. (The old Scribd PDF is still online, but you can also download it here: Solar-Cycles-and-the-Stock-Market.pdf)
Here is the relevant passage and a good starting point:

We got a typical early decade low with the covid crash and crisis. From the 3 year to the start of the 6 year, which is usually the best period in a decade, the S&P 500 has made a move from around 4,000 to 7,000. And that is a 75% increase, more than the 40% average move. As you can see in that chart, the move typically ends early in the 6 year and then falls an average of 10% by the end of the 7 year. I would not expect this to repeat to perfection, but given the 75% advance it would not be crazy to see a 20% decline or more between now and the 8 year. An average is always just an average.

This is not the only long term cycle that spells potential trouble ahead. The 18.6 year lunar node cycle, as described by Louise McWhirter in the 1930s, points to extreme lows when the North Node goes through Aquarius. The last time that happened was Dec 2007 – Aug 2009, the global financial crisis. The before last time was May 1989 – Nov 1990, the Gulf War.

Prior occasions:
Oct 1970 – May 1972: was not a market decline, but it was soon followed by the Oil crisis; Mar 1952 – Sep 1953: Korean War; Jul 1933 – Feb 1935: Great Depression; Dec 1914 – Jul 1916: WW1.

Given that McWhirter wrote her book in 1937 (“Astrology and Stock Market Forecasting”), it has worked pretty well in indicating global economic or military crises. If that pattern holds up then watch out from Aug 2026 until Feb 2028, when the North Node will be passing through Aquarius once again. This time the predicted weakness also coincides exactly with projected weakness from the decadal pattern. And let’s not forget that many AI models are trained on all that kind of info, and will thus tend to repeat the past.

As if that is not enough, 2026 is also a good year to “sell high” according to Benner’s cycle from 1875:

While 2026 is not shown as a panic year, the next chance to buy low does not come until 2032 if this cycle holds up, so it could become a prolonged period of weakness.

It’s too early to tell if new market highs will be seen in the remainder of 2026. Maybe the 7,002 high that was reached in January will stand as a peak. Another new high by summer can not be ruled out yet, but is it worth betting on if 2 lean years are to follow. That’s your decision to make. Good luck.